A Complete Breakdown of March Madness 2025 by Steve Kornacki
March Madness is back, bringing with it the adrenaline rush, upsets, and unforgettable moments that define the NCAA Tournament. In this edition of Steve Kornacki’s NCAA Tournament Guide, I share my thoughts, sleeper picks, potential upsets, and the teams my head and heart believe could make a run for the championship.
My love affair with this tournament began decades ago, thanks to an unforgettable game I witnessed as a kid at the Providence Civic Center. That night, I learned firsthand that the NCAA Tournament is full of surprises—and every year since, I’ve chased that same thrill.
While I don’t claim to be a bracket expert (last year’s champion pick didn’t pan out), my enthusiasm is still sky-high. Let’s dive into the key storylines as the 2025 NCAA Tournament tips off.
🏀 Top Sleeper Team in Steve Kornacki’s NCAA Tournament Guide: BYU’s Path to a Deep Run
Why BYU Could Surprise Everyone
Among the most intriguing storylines in Steve Kornacki’s NCAA Tournament Guide is BYU’s potential as a sleeper team. Entering as a No. 6 seed, the Cougars face a tough opening matchup against VCU, known for their suffocating defense.
BYU thrives on offense, averaging over 80 points per game and sinking nearly 11 three-pointers a night. Their high shooting efficiency makes them dangerous. Meanwhile, VCU clamps down defensively, holding opponents to just 61.6 points per game. It’s a classic showdown between firepower and lockdown defense.
How BYU’s Path Could Open Up
- Second Round: Likely against Wisconsin, a team struggling with injuries, notably to Max Klesmit.
- Sweet 16 Potential: A possible meeting with Alabama, who’s faltered recently and faces uncertainty around star player Grant Nelson’s health.
- Elite 8 Outlook: Top-seed Duke could await, but they’re not at full strength either, with Cooper Flagg nursing an ankle injury.
Given BYU’s momentum—they’ve beaten Kansas, Arizona, and Iowa State—this could be their deepest tournament run since the Jimmer Fredette era.
🔥 First-Round Upset Alert: Liberty Over Oregon
Why Liberty is a Prime Upset Candidate
No NCAA Tournament breakdown is complete without predicting a potential shocker. In Steve Kornacki’s NCAA Tournament Guide, the No. 12 Liberty Flames stand out as a major upset threat against No. 5 Oregon.
Liberty boasts one of the nation’s top three-point shooting teams, ranking sixth nationally. With multiple players shooting over 40% from deep, including instant-offense spark Taelon Peter, Liberty has the firepower to swing the game.
Defensively, they’re equally solid—10th in points allowed—making them a well-rounded team ready to pounce.
Why Oregon Should Worry
- Oregon is strong and enters hot, winning eight of their last nine.
- However, playing in Seattle gives them home-crowd support, but Liberty’s shooting makes them dangerous in a one-game setting.
- If Liberty heats up early, expect brackets nationwide to take a hit.
⚠️ The Expansion Factor: Why Early Losses from Oklahoma and Texas Might Be a Good Thing
Tournament Expansion Threatens the Magic of March
Steve Kornacki’s NCAA Tournament Guide also takes a closer look at the broader implications this year. Two teams—Oklahoma and Texas—are controversial entries. Both finished with a 6-12 conference record, marking the worst performance by at-large bids since the field expanded in 1985.
Why does this matter? Because the push to expand the tournament field to 76 teams is gaining momentum. Including teams like Oklahoma and Texas, despite lackluster records, sets a concerning precedent where power conferences dominate bubble spots.
For traditionalists who cherish the tournament’s current format, early exits for these two might help slow down the expansion chatter.
🏆 Who Wins It All? Steve Kornacki’s NCAA Tournament Guide Makes Its Picks
💪 The Smart Pick: Houston is Built for a Championship Run
Looking at this field, Houston stands tall in Steve Kornacki’s NCAA Tournament Guide as the most complete team. Finishing 30-4, Houston steamrolled through the Big 12, blending suffocating defense with a vastly improved offense.
Why Houston Could Go All the Way
- Ranked fourth nationally in three-point shooting.
- Three players hitting over 40% from beyond the arc.
- 80% of last year’s production returned, bringing experience and chemistry.
The only concern is big man J’Wan Roberts’ ankle sprain, but he’s expected to play. If healthy, Houston has all the pieces to finish what they started.
❤️ The Emotional Pick: St. John’s Chasing a Fairytale Run
Every tournament needs a Cinderella. In Steve Kornacki’s NCAA Tournament Guide, that team is St. John’s, led by coaching legend Rick Pitino. After years in the wilderness, the Red Storm roared to a 30-4 record and a No. 5 national ranking.
Strengths & Weaknesses
- They thrive on chaos: creating turnovers, forcing bad shots, and capitalizing in transition.
- St. John’s overcame double-digit deficits seven times this year—a testament to their resilience.
- However, shooting remains their Achilles heel, ranking 335th in three-point percentage and struggling at the free-throw line.
As much as I’d love to see Pitino lead this fairytale, those shooting woes could be their undoing in March.
✅ Final Thoughts from Steve Kornacki’s NCAA Tournament Guide
March Madness is all about drama, surprises, and unforgettable moments. Whether it’s BYU’s sleeper run, Liberty’s upset alert, or Houston’s title chase, this tournament promises it all. And who knows? Maybe St. John’s will deliver the ultimate underdog story and rewrite history.
Stay tuned. The madness is just beginning.