Introduction:
The Nifty 50 upside potential has gained fresh momentum after a rare technical signal emerged, suggesting further gains for the index. According to Laurence Balanco, a technical analyst at CLSA, the Nifty 50 has shown renewed strength by closing above its 50-Day Moving Average (DMA) during Thursday’s trading session — a positive development pointing toward continued upside.
Nifty 50 Upside Potential Strengthened by Technical Breakout
Balanco highlighted that the Nifty 50 upside potential has increased significantly following a sharp rally from recent lows. The index bounced back from 21,964 on March 4, adding over 1,200 points and reclaiming the 23,000 mark. This recovery has narrowed previous losses and positioned the index for further gains.
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In his market note dated March 21, Balanco explained that the recent move above the 50-DMA was accompanied by the first “breadth buy” signal since 2023 — a rare and strong bullish indicator.
A “breadth thrust” occurs when 55% or more of Nifty 50 stocks are trading at or above their four-week highs, signaling widespread strength within the index. According to Balanco, this was only the 39th such signal since 2002.
Historical Success Strengthens Nifty 50 Upside Potential Outlook
Backing the Nifty 50 upside potential, Balanco shared historical data showing that similar breadth signals have delivered solid returns in the past. On average, the Nifty 50 has gained:
- 3.8% over 30 days
- 7.8% over 90 days
- 13.4% over 250 days
Additionally, the probability of positive returns during these periods stands strong:
- 76.3% success rate over 30 days
- 73.6% over 90 days
- 81.5% over 250 days
These figures suggest that the market typically performs well after such rare signals, adding to the confidence in the Nifty 50 upside potential.
ICICI Bank Among Top Picks for Nifty 50 Upside Potential
As part of his strategy to leverage the Nifty 50 upside potential, Balanco recommended ICICI Bank as a key stock to watch. The banking heavyweight is trading close to its 52-week high of ₹1,362, reflecting its strong market performance.
ICICI Bank shares have gained nearly 7% in the past month, erasing previous losses and turning positive on a year-to-date basis. Its robust fundamentals and technical strength make it an attractive option for investors looking to ride the Nifty’s upward trend.
Conclusion:
With a rare breadth thrust signal flashing and historical data supporting strong future gains, the Nifty 50 upside potential appears promising. Investors may find lucrative opportunities in select stocks like ICICI Bank, which are well-positioned to benefit from this market momentum.
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